MERCER COUNTY — This might be the toughest political fight of Phil English’s life. Or even his last.

Polls have shown Republican U.S. Rep. English behind his Democratic 3rd District congressional opponent Kathy Dahlkemper by four or seven points, though English, a 14-year veteran of the House, disputes their results and released a portion of his own internal polls showing him with a slight lead.

Washington, D.C. political prognosticators like the Rothenberg Political Report and Cook Political Report have called the race a toss-up, or even tilting Mrs. Dahlkemper’s way.

The district, which includes most of Mercer County, has been targeted by the national Democratic party for its “Red to Blue” program, giving Mrs. Dahlkemper a financial boost and higher profile than English’s past Democratic opponents.

Likewise, the economy has been giving Democrats a national boost alongside lopsided Pennsylvania registration that pits about 4.4 million Democrats against 3.2 million Republicans. In Mercer County, Democrats have about a 7,000 voter lead.

If the stars weren’t already aligned for Mrs. Dahlkemper, there’s also independent candidate Dr. Steven Porter’s drop from the November ballot. Porter ran as a Democrat in 2004 and 2006 and as a write-in candidate this year he will be far less likely to strip whole percentages from the Democratic ticket.

English rode into power partly on the Republican wave of 1994, but now that wave may be ending.

Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum graduated to the Senate the same year English went to Washington, D.C., where they joined U.S. Rep. Melissa Hart, a neighboring Republican to the south of English’s district and who represents 13 Mercer County precincts.

In 2006, Mrs. Hart and Santorum were ousted from power. English clung on, winning against an underfunded Porter by 53 to 42 percent, with Constitution Party candidate Tim Hagberg absorbing 4 percent of the vote. Porter won Mercer County by just under 700 votes, about 2.11 percent.

English said he’s not the end of a historical moment. He said there’s been several “waves” since he took office, including the one that took other Republicans out in 2006.

“I’ve seen many of the people I came in with who took rigid ideological positions and did not stay close to the public mood get voted out,” English said.

“I feel very strongly by maintaining an independent voting record and by focusing on issues that many Republicans don’t focus on – for example, fair trade, workers benefits, unemployment compensation, the minimum wage – we’ve been able to offer a very different profile than other Republicans.”

But the 3rd District, which includes all or parts of Mercer, Crawford, Erie, Armstrong, Butler, Warren and Venango counties, is in visibly poor shape, a fact which Mrs. Dahlkemper has blamed English for.

“There's a lot of call for change, there's a call for change across the country,” Mrs. Dahlkemper said. "I believe the voters do see me as the person who can bring that change about."

Mrs. Dahlkemper called it a “crossroads” moment in western Pennsylvania and the nation. “Voters will determine whether we're going to go on the same course we've been going on, or whether we're going to choose a new course."

While English has a lot going against him, Mrs. Dahlkemper said he’s still got one very serious card in play: 14 years of incumbency that gives him name recognition.

“People know who he is and I'm sure there are some people out there who don’t know who I am,” she said.

English has been taking his battle with Mrs. Dahlkemper very seriously. He launched his first television ads in June.

The ad-war was mostly fought between English and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, who have spent a little over $1 million on advertisements and mailers. English has unloaded with his war chest, dropping $1.6 million since Sept. 30.

Mrs. Dahlkemper was outspent by both English and the DCCC, having dropped only $441,367 since Sept. 30, and releasing her first television ads in early October.

While one anonymous source reported in the Washington, D.C. media suggested national Republicans were writing English off, the National Republican Congressional Committee has pitched $683,000 into the 3rd District battle so far, said spokesman Ken Spain. The NRCC is also well behind the DCCC in terms of money raised this year.

The ad wars went negative very quickly. English attacked Mrs. Dahlkemper on not releasing her federal tax returns. Mrs. Dahlkemper said it was because her returns hold vital information concerning her small business that would give competitors an unfair advantage, endangering her employees.

The DCCC attacked English on economic issues, including several ads that claimed English supported privatizing social security.

English called the DCCC on the social security issue, referring to it as an outright lie. Though privatization never came to a vote, he said he was a vocal opponent. He also received endorsements from the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, who also oppose privatization.

Going into the home stretch of the election on Sept. 30, both Mrs. Dahlkemper and English had near the same amount of money left in their coffers: Mrs. Dahlkemper $274,850 and English $394,011.