The Herald, Sharon, Pa.

Local News

July 16, 2008

Dahlkemper, English race dead heat, Dem poll says

By Matt Snyder

3RD CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT — An internal poll released by 3rd Congressional District Democratic challenger Kathy Dahlkemper gives her a 1 percent edge against 14-year incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Phil English.

Of 400 likely voters sampled in the poll, 41 percent favored Mrs. Dahlkemper, 40 percent English, and 19 percent were undecided. The margin of error for the poll is 4.9 percent, said a memo from the polling company.

“Those numbers are huge for someone in my position,” Mrs. Dahlkemper said. “To be leading the 14-year incumbent, it’s huge.”

Mrs. Dahlkemper said the numbers look particularly good since English’s campaign has been running television and radio ads for a month.

Adam Beebe, campaign manager for English, called the poll a distraction from Mrs. Dahlkemper’s poor fundraising.

“She released this poll a day before her fundraising numbers came out, which were absolutely anemic,” Beebe said.

Campaign finance reports with information through June 30 show Mrs. Dahlkemper has $132,362 on hand. English’s campaign has $786,983.

Mrs. Dahlkemper said she is pleased with her fundraising and that the disparity is about the same as that between former Congresswoman Melissa Hart and Jason Altmire during their electoral battle in 2006. Altmire, then the challenger, knocked out the incumbent Mrs. Hart to represent the 4th District.

Beebe also said about a dozen constituents had called into the office last Wednesday and Thursday outraged at a “negative message” aimed at English through a poll, and said Mrs. Dahlkemper’s campaign paid for the poll in order to get favorable results.

Momentum Analysis, the polling company that according to their Web site does research on behalf of Democrats and progressive causes, sent a copy of the poll’s script to the Herald on request.

Questions included no messages about the candidates or noticeably loaded language, and company founder Margie Omero said no message about the candidates was given by pollsters prior to reading the script.

“I have a company standard,” Ms. Omero said. Polls by her company have appeared in publications including Salon and The Wall Street Journal, she said.

The polls also showed English’s “job approval” rating among those polled. About 35 percent said English was doing a good or excellent job. Another 52 percent rated him as only fair or poor.

“Phil English has voted with President George Bush’s policies almost 90 percent of the time. That’s a record that’s out there and I’ll be talking about that,” Mrs. Dahlkemper said.

Not shying from English’s legislative history, Beebe said, “I am very confident that come November we will have run a campaign that highlights Phil’s record and his record of producing for the district.”

Beebe said the English campaign does not release any internal polling. He would not comment on the general results of any internal polls they may have conducted.

The 3rd District includes most of Mercer County, all of Crawford and Erie counties and parts of Warren, Venango and Butler counties.

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